宁夏粮食生产经济效益分析及对策

Analysis on economic benefits of grain production in Ningxia and countermeasures

采用综合优势比较指数法、主成分回归等方法,依据全国农产品成本收益调查数据、统计数据和问卷调查数据,对宁夏小麦、水稻、玉米3种粮食作物的比较效益、比较优势以及布局、结构的演变及其原因、后果进行分析.结果表明:宁夏粮食生产效益低于全国平均水平,且差距在扩大;粮食种植效益不高,小麦长期亏损;粮食种植效益远低于蔬菜、苹果等经济作物;小麦、水稻、玉米的比较优势各有不同;小麦面积大幅度下降、玉米面积大幅度上升;区域布局由引黄灌区向中部干旱带和南部山区转移;种粮农户和新型农业经营主体处境艰难,农户种粮意愿不高.造成上述状况的根本原因在于宁夏粮食生产比较优势逐步丧失及其效益不断下降.提出相应对策:形成合理的粮食生产区域布局和结构;加大粮食作物新品种研发和推广力度;扬长避短,融入全国大市场;更多地依靠发展现代农业和规模经营增加农民收入.

In order to clarify the situation of unprecedented harvest and inefficiency of grain production, its causes and consequences, an analysis was made on the comparative benefits, comparative advantages as well as the evolution and its causes and consequences of the regional layout and structure of wheat, rice and maize production in Ningxia, using the comprehensive advantage comparison index method, principal component regression and other methods, based on national agricultural products cost-benefit survey data, tatistical data and questionnaire data. The results show that the grain production benefit of Ningxia is lower than the national average, and the gap is widening;the grain planting benefit is not high, and the wheat is in a loss state for a long time;the grain planting benefit is much lower than that of vegetables, apples and other economic crops;The comparative advantages of wheat, rice, corn are different;the area of wheat has dropped significantly, and the area of corn has increased substantially;the regional layout has shifted from the Yellow River Irrigation Area to the central arid zone and the southern mountainous areas;the grain farmers and new agricultural business entities are in a difficult situation, and the farmers are not willing to grow grain. The root cause of the above situation is the gradual loss of comparative advantage in grain production in Ningxia and the continuous declining in its benefits. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to form a reasonable regional distribution and structure of grain production;to increase the research and development and promotion of new varieties of grain crops;to foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, to integrate into the national market;to rely more on the development of modern agriculture and scale operations to increase farmers' income.