全球化、区域分化与民粹主义——选举地理视角下法国国民阵线的兴起

Globalization,Regional Differentiation and Populism: The Rise of the National Front from the Perspective of Electoral Geography

要素禀赋的相对变化使法国劳动力要素所有者内部发生分化,非熟练/半熟练劳动力和人力资本要素所有者形成了不同的政策偏好。由于生产要素在法国不同区域中的集聚性,两者的分化反映为法国各大区之间、城市中心区与郊区之间以及不同规模的城市之间的分化。由于传统制造业在发展中国家同类产品的竞争下走向衰落,法国非熟练/半熟练劳动力越来越难以找到合适的工作,同时他们还面临着来自南欧和北非的劳工移民以及近年来涌入的难民在就业机会和福利资源上的竞争。这种双重冲击使法国非熟练/半熟练劳动力产生了反全球化、反欧洲一体化、反移民的诉求,国民阵线因积极回应非熟练/半熟练劳动力的诉求而得到他们的政治支持,使其在多次总统选举中表现突出。受全球化和欧洲一体化冲击最为严重的是法国东北部“铁锈带”和地中海沿岸地区,法国北部、东部和地中海沿岸的很多大区因此成为国民阵线的主要票仓。此外,远离城市中心的远郊区和规模较小的城市集中了更多的非熟练/半熟练劳动力,因此这些区域的选民更多地把选票投给了国民阵线。法国国民阵线的兴起不仅重塑了法国的政党体系,也推动了民粹主义在欧洲政治乃至世界政治中的蔓延。

The relative change in factor endowment leads to division among labors in France: the unskilled/semi-skilled labors have policy preferences different from those of skilled labors. Because of the agglomeration of factors of production in different regions of France, the differentiation of these factors is reflected in the differentiation between regions, between the urban areas and suburbs, and between metropolises and small towns. The unskilled/semi-skilled labors in France are increasingly difficult to find suitable jobs due to the decline of traditional manufacturing in the face of competition of similar products from developing countries. At the same time, the labor migrants from southern Europe and North Africa and refugees in recent years compete with them for jobs and welfare. Both shocks force unskilled/semi-skilled labors in France to call for anti-globalization, anti-European integration and anti-immigration policies. The National Front which responds positively to them has won their political support, and thereupon performed well in several presidential elections. The “Rust Belt” in northeastern France and the Mediterranean coast has been hit most, and thus these regions have become the main supporter of the National Front. In addition, the outer suburbs far from urban centres, and smaller cities, have concentrated more unskilled/semi-skilled labor, so more voters in those regions have voted for the National Front. The rise of the National Front has not only reshaped the political party system in France, but also has facilitated the spread of populism in European and even world politics.