尾矿坝溃坝安全风险分析评价方法

Safety Risk Analysis and Evaluation Method for Tailings Dam Break

尾矿库作为潜在的泥石流危险源,一旦溃坝会造成严重的人员伤亡、财产损失和环境污染。基于蒙特卡洛方法,考虑尾矿库坝体材料参数的不确定性,分析了尾矿坝的失效概率;基于深度积分方法,模拟了溃坝发生后下泄尾砂流的影响范围及其冲击强度;介绍了下游淹没范围内生命损失、经济损失和环境损失的评估方法。根据上述尾矿库风险评价的基本理论,以9·8山西襄汾尾矿溃坝事故作为典型案例,系统地介绍了尾矿坝溃坝的风险评价方法,并对其风险程度进行了定量评价,上述研究对尾矿库的事故灾害防控和风险管理具有重要的实际意义。

As a potential source of debris flow hazards,tailings reservoir will cause serious casualties,property losses and environmental pollution once the dam breaks. Based on Monte Carlo method and considering the uncertainty of material parameters of tailing dam,failure probability of tailings dam is analyzed. Based on the method of depth-integrated equations, the impact range of discharged tailings flow after dam break is simulated by finite difference method. The life loss,economic loss and environmental loss suffered downstream under this condition are considered comprehensively. Taking the dam break accident of Xiangfen tailings on September 8 as a case,and according to the basic theory of risk assessment,the risk level of tailings dam is evaluated quantitatively. It’sof great significance to keep the prevention and control of accident,disasters and the risk management of tailings dam.