中国近年来终端能源需求特征研究——基于能源平衡表数据

Study on the Characteristics of China’s Final Energy Consumption in Recent Years

本文基于能源平衡表数据对经济新常态以来的终端能源消费现状进行了分析与研究,以期为能源系统朝高质量发展转型提供参考依据。研究结果表明:①受供给侧结构性改革深入推进及生态环境治理行动不断升级的共同作用,2010—2016年中国生产终端能耗呈现出阶段性企稳的“台阶”特征,且电气化率稳步上升,能源结构持续清洁化。②中国建筑终端能耗稳步上升,由2010年的6.26亿tce增加至2016年的9亿tce,其占终端能源消费总量的比重逐步上升至21%,能源结构也呈现逐渐向电力和天然气倾斜的趋势。③中国交通终端能耗呈现出快速的上升趋势,年均增速显著高于生产终端能耗及建筑终端能耗,柴油、汽油作为主要交通能源的情况没有变化,占交通终端能耗总量的比重仍然接近3/4。

The paper analyzes the current situation of final energy consumption since the new normal, so as to provide reference for high-quality energy development. Our studies indicate the following:① The final energy consumption of production in China rose first and then stabilized from 2010 to 2016, under the influence of the supply-side structural reform and the ecological environment governance. The electrification rate rises steadily, and the energy structure continues to be clean.② The final energy consumption of building in China steadily increased, from 626 million tons of coal equivalent in 2010 to 900 million tons of coal equivalent in 2016, and then a gradual inclination towards electricity and natural gas for energy structure.③ The final energy consumption of transportation in China shows a rapid upward trend. The average growth rate is significantly higher than that of production and building final energy consumption. The diesel and gasoline is the main final energy for transportation, accounting for nearly 3/4 of total final energy consumption of transportation.