中国第三方支付系统金融风险测量方法及实证分析

Financial Risk Measurement Method and Empirical Analysis of Third Party Payment System in China

随着中国第三方支付体系的发展,对该行业系统金融风险的判断显得日益重要。为了弥补中国第三方支付实际金融风险量化测度体系的缺陷,从理论上对中国第三方支付行业特点进行梳理,并与传统支付行业进行对比。基于问题导向视角筛选基础指标,得到相关综合指标模型,使用综合测度模型对目前中国第三方支付体系的市场风险和制度风险进行实证分析。之后,对实证研究分析的结果进行了验证。结果表明:中国第三方支付体系的市场风险主要源自洗钱问题,交易规模是制度风险最主要的影响因素。该结论符合一般经济意义和中国现阶段的实际情况,适用于金融监管和实际运营部门分析该行业系统风险,并作为规避和防控风险的依据。在此基础上,提出相应的强化中国第三方支付金融风险防控的建议。

With the development of China's third-party payment system,the judgment of the system's financial risks has become increasingly important.In order to make up for the financial risks of quantitative measurement system of third-party payment in China,the characteristics of China's third-party payment industry are combed theoretically and compared with traditional payment industry.Based on the problem-oriented perspective,the basic indicators are selected,the comprehensive measurement method is used to empirically analyze the market risk and institutional risk of the current third-party payment industry,and the relevant comprehensive indicator model is obtained.Afterwards,the results of the research analysis are tested.The results show that,the market risk of China's third-party payment system mainly comes from money laundering,and the transaction scale is the most important factor affecting institutional risk.The conclusion is in line with the general economic significance and the actual situation in China.It is also applicable to the financial supervision and actual operation departments to analyze the system risks of the industry and as the evidence for evading and preventing risks.On the basis of empirical analysis,proposals for strengthening the prevention and control of financial risks of third-party payment are proposed.