教育进步降低了人口出生率吗?

Education Progress Reduces fertility?

以贝克尔生育经济学理论为基础,结合中国人口实际发展情况,认为家庭的平均受教育水平在较低和较高的情况下,都会选择多生子女,以达到人口的效用最大化。将其扩展到宏观层面,受教育水平对人口出生率的影响不应是单纯的线性关系。基于2003—2017年中国大陆省级面板数据,利用空间计量模型,实证分析发现人均受教育年限对人口出生率的影响呈“U”型关系,并且存在空间溢出效应,同时还发现高等教育普及率对本区域和周边地区人口出生率均有显著的正向影响。因此,教育进步不仅是提高人口素质的重要手段,更能起到人口数量调整的作用,教育事业的进步对人口发展具有重要意义。

Based on Becker's theory of fertility economics and combined with China's actual population development,it is believed that families will choose to have more children when their average educational level is lower or higher,so as to maximize the human utility.At the macro level,the effect of education level on the birth rate should not be purely linear.Based on the provincial panel data of China's Mainland from 2003 to 2017,the empirical analysis using the spatial econometric model finds that the per capita education level has a U-shaped relationship with birth rate and spatial spillover effect.At the same time,it is found that the penetration rate of higher education not only has a significant positive impact on the birth rate of the province,but also has a positive impact on the birth rate of surrounding areas.Therefore,the progress of education is not only an important mean to improve the quality of the population,but also can play a role in the adjustment of population.The progress of education is of great significance to population development.