浙江省人口出生率变动主要影响因素实证分析

An empirical analysis of main influencing factors of birth rate change in Zhejiang Province

为研究浙江省的人口出生率变动,选取经济、流动人口、教育、人口老龄化、生育政策作为5个主要影响因素,采用1980—2016年相关指标数据,运用多元回归分析法和因子分析法做实证分析.实证结果表明:经济、教育、流动人口因素、生育政策因素中的“全面二孩”政策对浙江省人口出生率变动影响是正向显著的,其中教育因素是外部影响因素;人口老龄化因素影响是负向显著的.最后根据实证结果给出把握人口出生率变动趋势、完善外来人口服务保障机制、制定高峰人口出生措施的合理化建议。

Abstract: In order to study the change of population birth rate in Zhejiang Province, the data of relevant indicators from 1980 to 2016 were used to make an empirical analysis by virtue of multiple regression analysis and factor analysis, by selecting economy, floating population, education, population aging and fertility policy to be main influencing factors. The empirical results show that economy factor, education factor, floating population factor, and “Full-scale Two-Child” policy in fertility policy factor have a positive significant impact on the birth rate change in Zhejiang Province, among which the education factor is an external factor;while the influence of population aging factor is a negative significant one. Finally, according to the empirical results, reasonable suggestions were proposed on grasping the trend of birth rate change, improving the service mechanism of floating population and formulating measures for peak population birth.