安徽省县域经济影响因素的空间差异研究

Analysis of Spatial Variability of Influencing Factors to County Economy in Anhui Province

改革开放以来,安徽省加快发展步伐,国内生产总值实现了大跨度的飞跃,安徽省已经成为我国中部地区发展最快且最具活力的省份之一,但内部差异也逐渐扩大。为揭示安徽省县域经济发展差异与各个影响因素之间的关系,采用分位数回归方法对2007-2016年安徽省56个县域的经济数据进行分析,分析在区域经济发展的过程中各个指标变量对于县域经济发展水平作用力的强弱及方向。研究结果表明:地区财政总收入、规模以上工业增加值、农林牧渔业总产值以及社会消费品零售总额对县域地区的经济发展有着显著的影响,而职工年平均工资和农民纯收入也在一定程度上影响着地区经济的发展;同时,在不同阶段的县域经济发展水平下,各种要素的影响效果也不同。

Since the reform and opening-up,Anhui Province has accelerated its pace of development,and its GDP has achieved a leap in growth.Anhui Province has become one of the fastest growing and most dynamic provinces in central China,but its internal differences have gradually expanded.In order to reveal the relationship between county economic development differences and various influencing factors in Anhui Province,the quantile regression is used to analyze the economic data of 56 counties in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2016,and a quantile regression model is established to analyze the strength and direction of each index to the regional economic development.The results show that the total regional revenue,the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size,the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,and the total retail sales of social consumer goods have a significant impact on the economic development of the county,while the average annual wages of workers and farmer' net income also affects the development of the regional economy to a certain extent;at the same time,under different levels of county economic development,the effects of various factors are also different.