论中美经济关系“新范式”的意义、内涵与挑战

On the "New Paradigm" of Sino-U.S. Economic Relation:Significance,Connotation,and Challenges

2018年以来,中美经济关系面临前所未有的挑战。如何在中美关系质变的背景下构建中美经济关系的“新范式”,成为事关全球经济发展和人类福祉的关键。确立中美经济关系“新范式”的经济逻辑体现为三个“难以为继”,即中美两国各自的经济增长模式难以为继、全球经济失衡的总体格局难以为继以及20世纪70年代以来的经济全球化模式难以为继。与此同时,应当看到三个不变,即中美经济合作互利共赢的本质属性没有变、经济全球化向前发展的总体趋势没有变以及全球经济治理中大国协调的必要性没有变。因此,在诸多领域的中美协调与合作仍将是完善全球经济治理体系的基石。确立中美经济关系“新范式”的宗旨在于以双边经贸利益的共生性和包容性对冲两国地缘政治的竞争性和对抗性。这一“新范式”的内涵包括三个层面:竞争合作、分歧管控以及深化融合。特朗普政府的“全政府”对华竞争战略、中国经济发展国际环境的根本性变化以及一些似是而非的观念对“新范式”的确立构成了挑战。对中国而言,尊重中美双边经贸关系发展的经济逻辑、解决好中国经济发展的深层次矛盾以及提高“一带一路”倡议的透明度与可预期性至关重要。

Since 2018,Sino-U.S.economic relation has faced unprecedented challenges.How to build a"new paradigm"of Sino-U.S.economic relation under the background of the qualitative change of Sino-U.S.relations has become the key to global economic development and human welfare.The economic logic of establishing a"new paradigm"of Sino-U.S.economic relation is reflected in the"three unsustainability",that is,the respective economic growth models of China and the United States are unsustainable.the overall pattern of global economic imbalances is unsustainable,and the economic globalization model since the 1970s is unsustainable.At the same time,we should also see the"three unchanging",that is,the essential attribute of the mutual benefit and win-win situation of China-U.S.economic cooperation has not changed,the overall trend of economic globalization has not changed,and the necessity of coordination among major powers in global economic governance has not changed.Therefore,Sino-U.S.coordination and cooperation in many fields will remain the cornerstone for improving the global economic governance system.The purpose of establishing a"new paradigm"of Sino-U.S.economic relation is to hedge the geopolitical competitiveness and confrontation between the two countries by the symbiosis and inclusiveness of bilateral economic and trade interests.The connotation of this"new paradigm"includes three levels:competitive cooperation,divergence management,and deepening integration.The Trump administration's"whole-of-government"competition strategy against China,the fundamental changes in the international environment for China's economic development,and some wrong concepts pose challenges to the establishment of the"new paradigm."For China,it is of vital importance to respect the economic logic of the development of bilateral economic and trade relations between China and the United States,to resolve the deep-seated problems of China's economic development,and to improve the transparency and predictability of the"Belt and Road Init iative".