体系压力、威胁认知与韩国在中美之间的战略选择

Sources of Threats,Threat Awareness,and ROK’s Strategic Choice Between China and the U.S.

随着中国综合国力的增长以及中美在亚太主导权竞争的加剧,作为地区重要的中等强国,韩国如何在中美之间进行战略选择日益成为学界关注的重要问题。本文以韩国加入亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)、韩国部署萨德反导系统、韩国在南海问题上的行动为例,分析了韩国在中美之间战略选择的特点及决策影响因素。研究发现,第一,“安全上靠美国,经济上靠中国”的战略定义不足以全面说明韩国在中美之间的战略选择特点,韩国的战略选择具有多样性。第二,体系压力、自身的安全认知是影响韩国在中美之间战略选择的重要因素。其中,对于韩国来说,抵御来自朝鲜的安全威胁优先于防范中美博弈给韩国带来的安全风险。具体来说,如果某一议题涉及朝鲜威胁.韩国通常采取跟随美国的战略;如果不涉及朝鲜威胁,韩国则会选择迎合一方但不损害另一方的“对冲”战略。

With the growth of China's power and the intensification of the conipeti.tion between China and the United States in Asia-Pacific,as an important middle power in this region,how Republic of Korea makes strategic choices between China and the United States has become an important issue of academic concern.Taking ROKzs joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB),ROK's deployment of the THAAD system and ROK's position on the south China sea issue as examples,this paper analyzes the characteristics of ROK's strategic choice between China and the United States and the factors influencing its decision.It is believed that the sources of threats are important elements altering the strategy.Among them,security interests take precedence over economic interests:Defending against threats from DPRK takes precedence over defending against security threats from the Sino-U.S.competition.Specifically,in the aspect of security,if a certain topic involves the threat from DPRK,ROK usually adopts the strategy of following the United States;If the DPRK threat is not involved,ROK will choose to cater to the U.S.without harming China s interests,to avoid provoking China.On the economic perspective.ROK has made choices which suits its own national interest while echoes China's initiative,even if they have concerns over United States.