我国矿业对澳大利亚直接投资景气监测及预警研究

Monitoring and Early Warning of Economic Climate for Chinese Mining Direct Investment Boom in Australia

为了掌握我国矿业对澳大利亚直接投资景气现状及未来趋势,尽早发现不利动向,便于企业及时调整经营策略,基于2007~2016年澳投资环境数据和我国矿业对其直接投资净额数据,运用时差分析、景气度测算、BP神经网络预测、3σ原理构建了投资景气监测及预警体系,对投资景气状态进行了计量、监控、预示、预测及预警。研究结果显示:澳投资环境中的先行指标能够对我国矿业在该国近期的直接投资景气状态起到良好预示及预测作用;我国矿业2007~2016年对澳整体投资水平较高且较稳定,大部分年份处于景气空间,只有2015年呈现萧条;经预测,2017年投资景气度将进入趋热区,投资存在过热倾向,对此状态进行了轻度预警。最后依据研究结果,为我国矿业对澳直接投资提出了相应建议。

An monitoring and early warning system for investment climate was established,based on the 2007~2016 Australian investment environment data and Chinese mining direct investment boom net data,by using time difference analysis,prosperity measurement,BP neural network prediction,3σprinciple,for providing the status quo and future trends of Chinese mining direct investment boom in Australia,so that Chinese mining companies could get to know the unfavorable signs as early as possible and timely adjust their business strategies.Then,this system was adopted to conduct the prosperity calculation,monitoring,prediction and early warning for investment climate.It was found that,the leading indicators of the Australian investment environment could play a good predictive role in Chinese mining companies′recent direct investment.China′s mining companies′total investments in Australia during 2007~2016 were stable and at a relatively high level.There were further rooms for prosperity of direct investment boom in most of years during this period time,only 2015 saw depression.It was predicted that the investment climate tended to be hot in 2017,and the investment was likely to become overheated,for which a gentle warning was given in advance.Finally,based on the research results,some corresponding investment proposals were put forward.