气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域径流量的影响

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in The Wei River Basin

采用M-K趋势检验法、有序聚类变点分析法以及径流变化归因分离评判方法,分析渭河流域近50a的气温、降水、径流的演变特征和径流量变化的影响因素。结果表明:流域气温升高趋势显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,其中1994年是气温突变的节点;流域降水量呈缓慢减少的态势,变化节点发生在1969年;流域径流量减少趋势极显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,突变节点发生在1969年,与降水突变节点一致。由VIC模型计算得出:流域径流量的变化主要由气候波动和人类活动改变流域下垫面共同作用引起的,其中气候变化的影响较大。

The M-K trend test method, ordered clustering variable point analysis and runoff change attribution evaluation method are used to analyze the evolution characteristics of temperature, precipitation and runoff and the influencing factors of runoff change in the Wei River Basin in the past 50 years.The results show that the temperature rise in the basin is significant, and it is tested by 95% confidence level, in which 1994 is the period with sudden temperature change;the precipitation in the basin is slowly decreasing, and the change point occurs in 1969;the runoff in the basin significantly decreased.The sharp curve occurred in 1969 through a 95% confidence level test, consistent with the precipitation curve.It is calculated from the VIC model that the change of runoff is mainly caused by the combination of climate fluctuations and human activities changing the underlying surface of the basin, and the impact of climate change is greater.