美国货币政策正常化对中国经济发展的影响

The Impact of the Normalization of American Monetary Policy on China’s Economic Development

在GVAR模型框架下,研究利用2008—2017年全球14个国家月度数据,建立包含9个经济体的VARX*的GVAR模型,采用结构化广义脉冲响应函数,分析了美国加息缩表对中国经济发展的冲击作用。结果表明,美国加息,一定程度上使人民币贬值,短期内增加中国对美国的出口,从而提升中国的产出,而对中国资产价格则有负面作用;美国缩表,短期内对中国产出的影响是正面的,且影响程度大于加息冲击效应。相比较而言,美国加息缩表对中国经济的负面影响小于其对美国经济本身,以及对欧元区、日本经济的影响。

The impact of the interest rates increase and the balance sheet size decrease of the United States on China's economic development is analyzed by using Structural Generalized Impulse Response Function in the framework of GVAR model,based on the monthly data of 14 countries in the world from 2008 to 2017 and the GVAR model which consists of nine economies'VARX*model.The results show that the US interest rate increase will depreciate the RMB to some extent and increase China's exports to the US in the short term,thus boosting China's output,and bring negative effects on China's asset prices;the US balance sheet size decrease has a positive impact on China's output in the short term,and the impact is greater than the impact of interest rate increase.