京津冀区域物流业空间结构演化及影响因素研究

Research on the Spatial Structure Evolution and Influencing Factors of Regional Logistics Industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

采用区位熵理论分析了2008—2017年京津冀地区13个城市的物流产业集聚的演变状态,接着引入Moran’I指数进行研究,得出京津冀地区各城市物流业发展状态存在显著的差异,区域物流产业集聚存在较强的空间自相关性,在非首都功能疏解政策的强力支持下,物流产业迁往京津城市郊区,城市物流网络扩展式发展,未来该区域将呈现以河北省为发展重心的物流业集聚化态势.借助主成分分析法讨论了京津冀区域物流产业的影响因素,发现8个因素对物流业集聚存在正向促进作用,按影响程度排序依次为GDP,社会消费品零售总额,工业生产总值,交通、邮政、仓储业固定资产投资总额,农业生产总值,公路路网规模,进出口总额,货运量;有1个因素对物流业集聚存在负相关,为物流业从业人数.

The regional entropy theory is used to analyse the evolution of the logistics industry in 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2008 to 2017,and then the Moran's I is introduced in the paper,and the research shows that there are significant differences in the development of the industry in the region of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Under the strong support of the non-capital function relief policy,the logistics industry is moved to the suburbs of Beijing and Tianjin,and the urban logistics network is developed in an expanded way.This region will present the development trend of the logistics industry with Hebei Province as the development focus in the future.With the help of principal component regression analysis to discuss the influence factors of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional logistics industry,the nine factors of the logistics industry agglomeration are found and have positive role.According to the influence degree rank,they are followed by GDP,they are total retail sales of social consumer goods,gross industrial product,total investment in fixed assets of transportation,postal service and storage industry,gross agricultural product,road network scale,total export-import volume,volume of freight traffic;but there is a negative correlation between one factor and logistics industry agglomeration,which is the number of employees in the logistics industry.