摘要
为了研究媒体播报的滞后性对传染病传播的影响,建立了一类具有时滞的传染病模型,给出了基本再生数的计算公式,分析了平衡点的稳定性,证明了Hopf分支的存在性,并通过数值模拟验证了:媒体播报时滞和部分有意识易感人群也有可能被感染这两种情形都会使感染者增多,并且推迟达到峰值的时间.
In order to study the influence of the time delay resulting from media coverage on the prevalence of any infectious disease,an epidemic model with delay is established and the calculation formula of the basic reproduction number is provided.Both the stability of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are proved.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out and the results show that the time delay in execution of media coverage,as well as some people who are aware susceptible may also be infected,will increase the number of the infected and postpone the peak time.
作者
王晓静
王雪萍
白玉珍
许传青
李泽妤
WANG Xiaojing;WANG Xueping;BAI Yuzhen;XU Chuanqing;LI Zeyu(School of Science,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044;Canvard College,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 101118)
出处
《北京建筑大学学报》
2019年第2期74-80,共7页
Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(11701026)
关键词
时滞
基本再生数
稳定性
HOPF分支
媒体播报
time delay
basic reproduction number
stability
Hopf bifurcation
media coverage