机场放行能力约束条件下的航班延误波及分析

Estimation of Flight Delays and Propagation under the Airport Capacity Constraints

航班延误影响机场和航空公司的正常运行,同时给旅客出行带来不便,因此,对航班延误的预测分析具有重要的现实意义.在机场放行能力约束条件下,分析航班延误波及情况,对延误时长进行定量预测.以航班历史数据为学习样本,计算在前序航班延误的影响下,后续航班在不同延误等级的初始条件概率,并按照航班优先级以及预测时段机场的放行能力约束,对初始条件概率进行修正,从而对航班延误时长进行短期预测.最后通过实例分析,结果表明考虑机场放行能力约束,提升了航班延误预测的准确度,验证了方法的有效性.

Flight delays affect the normal operation of the airports, airlines and passengers. Therefore, the analysis and early warning about flight delays and propagation is of practical significance. This paper tries to estimate the flight delays under the airport capacity con straints. Taking the effect of former flight into consideration, and under the condition of no airport capacity constraints, this paper calculates the conditional probability of delay time. And then it provides a method to make an adjustment on the delay time probability distri bution based on the flights priority and the airport capacity constraints. At last, a practical example is illustrated to show the effectiveness of applying the proposed method.