产品质量视域下我国化肥价格的非对称传导分析

Analysis of the asymmetric transmission of China’s fertilizer price from the perspective of product quality

质量作为产品的重要属性,其在价格传导中的作用并未得到重视。在运用门槛回归和协整分析的基础上,构建非对称误差修正模型,实证分析煤炭价格与低端、高端尿素价格的非对称性传导特征与机制。实证结果显示:低端、高端尿素价格的传导规律不尽相同。首先,在价格波动格兰杰因果关系方面,低端尿素价格会受到煤炭价格和高端尿素价格波动的影响,而高端尿素价格则不然;其次,长期来看,低端、高端尿素价格与煤炭价格之间存在负向非对称价格传导,煤炭价格的波动会引起低端尿素价格的负向非对称波动,而对高端尿素价格而言,这种影响不显著。

As an important attribute of products, their quality has not been taken seriously in the role of price transmission. On the basis of threshold regression and cointegration analysis, this paper constructs an asymmetric error correction model and empirically analyzes the characteristics as well the mechanism of asymmetric transmis sion of coal price and low-end, high-end urea prices. The empirical results show that the transmission law of low-end and high-end urea prices are not the same. First, in terms of Granger causality of prices fluctuation, low-end urea prices will be affected by fluctuation in coal prices and high-end urea prices, while high end urea prices will not. Second, in the long run, there is a negative asymmetric transmission between low-end, high- end urea prices and coal prices. The fluctuation of coal prices will cause negative asymmetric fluctuation of low- end urea prices, but for high end urea prices, such effect is not prominent.