中国与“一带一路”国家贸易关系复杂性分析

Analysis of the complexity of trade relations between China and countries along the Belt and Road

“一带一路”倡议的提出明显促进了中国与沿线国家间的贸易关系。将波士顿矩阵模型用于73个国家对华贸易数据的分析,中国是沿线国家最大的单一贸易伙伴,对沿线73个国家的贸易依赖度不断提高,结果表明与73个国家间的贸易关系存在着较大差异。近年来,沿线国家对华贸易的7成左右集中于10余个国家。贸易成本、制度水平以及贸易结构等对中国与沿线国家间贸易发展的影响最大,未来应基于上述3方面制定政策。

The Belt and Road Initiative has clearly promoted trade relations between China and countries along the route. The Boston matrix model is used to analyze the trade data of 73 countries trading with China. As the largest single trading partner of the countries along the route, China shows an ever increasing dependence on 73 countries along the route in terms of trade. The results show that there exist great differences in the trade relation. In recent years, about 70% of China’s trade are mainly carried out with a dozen countries. Besides, trade costs, institutional levels, and trade structures are said to have the greatest impact on trade development between China and countries along the route. Therefore, policies should be formulated based on the above three aspects.