普惠金融水平的衡量及其对经济增长的影响——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Measurement of the Inclusive Financial Level and Its Impact on Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

参考M.Sarma提出的指数计算方法并结合我国的实际情况,选取9个经济指标综合计算我国各省市普惠金融指数。并在此基础上利用我国其中30个省2006—2017年的经济数据,使用固定效应模型与基于差分GMM的动态面板数据模型研究普惠金融对经济增长的影响。普惠金融指数结果表明:近十年来,我国整体的普惠金融水平有了一定的进步,但地区差异相对较大。实证分析结果表明:普惠金融在促进经济增长方面具有重要作用,但从长远来看,其贡献并不显著。因此,应努力探索普惠金融发展和经济增长的长效互补机制,增强经济增长潜力并加快经济发展进程。

In reference to the index calculation method proposed by M. Sarma, combined with China’s actual economic situation, nine economic indicators are selected to calculate the inclusive financial index of China’s provinces and cities. On this basis, a study has been carried out on the impact of inclusive finance on economic growth by citing the economic data of China’s 30 provinces from 2006 to 2017, and by using fixed effect model and dynamic panel data model based on DiffGMM. The results of inclusive financial index show that in the past decade, China’s overall inclusive financial level has made some progress, while with a considerable regional discrepancy. The empirical analysis shows that the inclusive finance plays an important role in promoting economic growth, but its contribution is not significant in the long run. Therefore, great efforts should be made to explore long-term complementary mechanisms for inclusive financial development and economic growth, enhance economic growth potential and accelerate economic development.