欠发达地区农民收入的影响因素及空间溢出效应研究——以甘肃省为例

Study on the Influencing Factors and Spatial Spillover Effects on Income of Rural Residents in Underdeveloped Areas——A Case Study of Gansu Province

以甘肃省74个贫困县为研究样本,利用空间杜宾模型和偏微分估计方法分析2009—2016年间影响贫困地区农民收入的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)贫困地区农民收入存在显著的空间相关性,其中农民经营性收入空间相关性最大。(2)贫困地区农民不同类型收入的影响因素存在差异。工资性收入主要受到本地区农业机械化程度、金融规模、基础教育水平和政府干预的影响;经营性收入受本地区基础教育水平和政府干预的影响显著;转移性收入主要受到本地区农村商业发展水平和政府干预的影响。空间临近地区基础教育水平、金融规模和政府干预对本地区农民各类型收入存在显著影响。(3)各影响因素对农民收入影响的空间溢出效应存在差异。农业机械化水平对工资性收入的直接效应显著为正;制造业发展水平对工资性收入的直接和间接效应均显著为正;商业发展水平主要影响本地经营性收入以及本地、外地的转移性收入;基础教育水平对转移性收入的直接和间接效应均显著,但只对本地经营性收入和外地工资性收入起促进作用;金融规模对三类收入的直接、间接效应均显著为正;政府干预对工资性收入和经营性收入的直接效应为负、间接效应为正,对转移性收入的直接和间接效应均为正。

Taking 74 poverty-stricken counties in Gansu province as the research sample,this paper analyzes the factors affecting income of farmers in poverty-stricken areas and their spatial spillover effects from 2009 to 2016 by using spatial Durbin model and partial differential estimation method. The results show that :( 1) there is a significant spatial correlation in incomes of farmer in poor area,of which the spatial correlation in farmers’ operating income is the biggest.( 2) there are differences in factors that affect the different type of incomes of farmers in poor areas. Wage income is mainly affected by the level of agricultural mechanization,financial scale,primary education level and government intervention. Operating income is significantly affected by basic education level and government intervention in the region. Farmers’ transfer income is mainly affected by the extents of rural commercialization and local government intervention. The level of fundamental education,financial scale and government intervention in spatial neighboring regions have significant influence on various incomes of farmer.( 3) the spatial spillover effect of various influencing factors on farmers’ income is different. The direct effect of level of agricultural mechanization on wage income is significantly positive,and the direct and indirect effects of level of manufacturing industry on wage income are significantly positive. The extent of commercialization mainly affects the local operating income and transfer incomes from the local and external. The direct and indirect effect of basic education level on transfer income is significant,but only to promote local operating income and external wage income. The financial scale has significantly positive direct and indirect effects on three types of income. The direct effect of government intervention on wage income and operating income is negative whereas the indirect effect is positive while the government intervention has positive direct and indirect effect on transfer income.