摘要
针对旅游经济发展的影响因素,首先,选择山西省2004-2017年统计数据,结合灰色关联法进行相关性分析,结果得出:影响山西省旅游经济发展的主要因素是经济发展程度、人民生活水平、旅游接待能力;旅游交通、人力资源、环境资源对山西省旅游经济发展的贡献度不足。其次,利用GM(1,1)模型,预测山西省未来五年旅游产业在新时代背景下的旅游收入情况,表明发展潜力十分巨大。最后,根据实证结果提出加快山西省旅游产业发展的针对性政策。
In view of the influencing factors of tourism economic development, this paper firstly chooses the statistical data of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2017, and carries out the correlation analysis by combining the grey correlation method. The results show that the main factors affecting the development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province are the degree of economic development, people ′ s living standards, tourism reception capacity, and the impact of tourism transportation, human resources and environmental resources on the development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province. The contribution is insufficient. Secondly, using GM (1,1) model, the tour. ism income of Shanxi Province in the next five years under the background of the new era is forecasted, which shows that the develop. ment potential is huge. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward the targeted policies to accelerate the develop. ment of tourism industry in Shanxi Province.
作者
朱家明
ZHU Jia-ming(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu Anhui, 233030)
出处
《山西大同大学学报(自然科学版)》
2019年第3期32-36,共5页
Journal of Shanxi Datong University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目[11601001]
安徽财经大学教研项目[acxkjsjy201803zd
acjyyb2018006]
安徽财经大学大学生科研创新基金项目[XSKY1960]
关键词
旅游经济发展
灰色关联分析
影响因子
灰色预测
计量分析
tourism economic development
grey correlation analysis
impact factors
grey prediction
econometric analysis