基于灰色关联法对山西旅游经济发展影响因素的计量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Influencing Factors of Shanxi Tourism Economic Development Based on Grey Relational Method

针对旅游经济发展的影响因素,首先,选择山西省2004-2017年统计数据,结合灰色关联法进行相关性分析,结果得出:影响山西省旅游经济发展的主要因素是经济发展程度、人民生活水平、旅游接待能力;旅游交通、人力资源、环境资源对山西省旅游经济发展的贡献度不足。其次,利用GM(1,1)模型,预测山西省未来五年旅游产业在新时代背景下的旅游收入情况,表明发展潜力十分巨大。最后,根据实证结果提出加快山西省旅游产业发展的针对性政策。

In view of the influencing factors of tourism economic development, this paper firstly chooses the statistical data of Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2017, and carries out the correlation analysis by combining the grey correlation method. The results show that the main factors affecting the development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province are the degree of economic development, people ′ s living standards, tourism reception capacity, and the impact of tourism transportation, human resources and environmental resources on the development of tourism economy in Shanxi Province. The contribution is insufficient. Secondly, using GM (1,1) model, the tour. ism income of Shanxi Province in the next five years under the background of the new era is forecasted, which shows that the develop. ment potential is huge. Finally, according to the empirical results, the paper puts forward the targeted policies to accelerate the develop. ment of tourism industry in Shanxi Province.