“弱势”投资者能有效评估P2P借贷违约风险吗?

Can Disadvantage Investors Effectively Evaluate P2P Lending Default Risk?

在P2P市场中,大量投资者都不具备专业知识,处在信息处理能力的“弱势”地位。将自变量分为代表投资者对借款人整体观点的变量和借款人历史信用表现的变量,实证分析表明,投资者可以根据借款人的历史信用表现预测借款人违约概率,预测准确率会达到95%左右,且其准确性与市场整体对借款人违约概率的预测基本一致。这说明,即使是非专业投资者,也可以根据通俗易懂的借款人历史信用信息评估借款人的违约风险,而不必关注专业投资者的具体看法。实证分析说明在P2P市场中,投资者教育势在必行,同时也从侧面证明P2P网贷能够有效地给之前排除在传统金融体系之外的投资者提供参与金融投资的机会。

In P2P market, many investors do not have special intelligence and so stay in the disadvantage positon ofinformationhandling. The independent variables are divided into two categories: one represents the points of whole investors, the other represents borrowers'historical credit information.And the empirical analysis shows that investors can rely on borrowers' historic performance to predict their default risk with 95% precisions and the precision rateaccords with the prediction of the default risk for the whole market. This conclusion implies that the disadvantage investors can use borrowers' easy-understanding historical credit information to evaluate default risk rather than care about specialists' viewpoints. The empirical analysis shows that investor education is of great importance to P2P market, and P2P market can effectively provide opportunities to investors who have been rejected by the traditional financial system.