地方政府规模与经济增长的门槛效应研究

Research on the Threshold Effect of Local Government Scale and Economic Growth

近年来,东北地区经济出现断崖式下跌,其经济失速的原因成为学界研究的重点。从政府规模和政府治理能力的角度,研究东北地区经济现象的原因,以政府规模为门槛变量,通过构建面板门槛模型实证考察了1995-2015年东北三省34个地级市地方政府规模与经济增长的关系。研究发现:第一,东北地区政府规模与经济增长近似呈“倒U型”,Armey曲线在我国东北地区仍然成立;经济增长与政府规模之间的关系存在非线性作用,存在含有两个门槛值的门槛效应;第二,东北地区的政府规模对经济增长的作用受到政府治理水平的影响,且该作用效果为负,东北地区地方政府的治理水平有待提高。

In recent years, the economy of Northeast China has fallen sharply and the reason has become the focus of academic research. From the perspective of government size and governance capacity to research the reasons of the economy of Northeast China, and regarding government size as threshold variable, a panel threshold model is builtto analyze the relationship between government size and economic growth in 34 areas of Northeast China from 1995 to 2015. The result shows that: there is an inverted U relationship between government size and economic growth and the Armey curve still holds in Northeast China;there exists nonlinear role and threshold effect with two threshold values in the relationship between government size and economic growth;the role of government size playing in economic growth in Northeast China is negatively affected by the level of governance which has to be improved.