中国装备制造业(2002-2012)增加值增长的结构分解分析

An SDA Analysis on the Increase in Added Value of China’s Equipment Manufacturing Industry

利用2002-2012年可比价进口非竞争型投入产出表,借助结构分解分析模型,考察中国装备制造业增加值增长的驱动因素,结果表明:增加值率变动是致使中国装备制造业增加值下降的主导因素,而这一不利影响在2007-2012年有所弱化,这主要体现在金属制品业和交通运输设备制造业;最终需求变动则是促进其增加值提高的主要动力;从中间投入变动因素来看,2002-2007年2007-2012年这两个研究区间内,制造业与服务业中间投入结构变动对装备制造业的影响由负转正,并且发挥了较大的积极作用,特别是在仪器仪表制造业。因此,应当进一步改造传统装备制造业,加强高新技术在装备制造业的渗透,同时促进生产性服务与装备制造业的产业融合,以实现中国装备制造业由“大”到“强”的转变。

Using the import non-competitive I-O table with comparable price of the year from 2002 to 2012, based on the structural decomposition analysis, the driving force of increase in the added value of equipment manufacturing is studied. It shows that the rate of added value factor is the main force which leads to the decrease in the added value of China's equipment manufacturing, but this effect reduced a lot during the year of 2007--2012. And this phenomenon mainly occurred in the departments of metal equipment and transportation equipment manufacturing sector. The final demand factor is the main force which leads to the increase in the added value of equipment manufacturing. From the view of changes in the intermediate inputs, the effect of change in the intermediate inputs between manufacturing and services changed from negative to positive during the year of 2002-2007 and 2007--2012, which exerted significant effect especially at the department of instrument manufacturing. So we should further reform traditional industry and strengthen technical penetration and promote the industrial convergence between manufacturing and service so that realize transformation from the "big" to "strong" of China's equipment manufacturing.