中国旅游城市生态安全系统作用机理研究——基于PLS与SD的组合

Research on action mechanism of ecological security system of Chinese tourist cities:Based on the combination of PLS model with SD model

针对目前旅游生态安全研究重视系统要素间的比较与综合,而忽视系统内部作用路径与动态机理分析的现状,以DPSIR的概念模型作为旅游生态安全系统的基础框架,将该系统作用机理分解为7条作用路径,并以中国30个主要旅游城市为研究对象,采用偏最小二乘法模型(PLS)描述系统静态作用机理,结合系统动力学模型(SD)对系统动态作用机理进行动态仿真。研究结果表明:①采用PLS模型对DPSIR模型中的7条作用路径进行检验与测度,发现“响应-压力”的负向与“影响-响应”的正向作用不显著,造成系统反馈链条出现断裂,难以形成有效的循环反馈机制。据此,将中国旅游城市生态安全系统的静态作用机理解析为两个部分,“驱动力-压力-状态-影响”的单方向的链式作用路径,反映了旅游城市的生产、生活行为对生态环境系统的依存关系及影响;“响应-驱动力/压力”的发散式作用路径,综合汇总了旅游城市对生态安全系统管理能力。②依据修正的DPSIR模型,构建中国旅游城市生态系统的动力学模型进行仿真模拟,揭示旅游生态安全系统的演变路径与发展趋势,并结合旅游产业发展与生态文明建设的战略规划设定政策情景模拟方案,探究在政策干预下我国旅游生态安全系统的状况,并评测政府管理策略的实施绩效,识别旅游产业的策略诉求。依据系统发展现状仿真模拟结果表明,生态安全系统状态呈现持续恶化的态势,游客数量遇到增长拐点而急剧减少,旅游产业协调度呈现曲线下降的态势;依据情景模拟结果表明,设定的“战略导向”与“协调导向”的两种情景模拟方案,均能够有效地改善旅游生态安全系统的现行状况。而“协调导向”通过更加严格的控制游客数量的增长速率,降低产业发展速度,增强环保与基建投入等措施,能够有效地实现游客数量的持续增长,生态系统状况的良性改善,旅游协调度也呈现出优良稳定的态势。

Aimed to the deficiency that the research on tourist ecological security attaches importance to the comparison and synthesis of system elements,and ignores to analyze the internal system paths and dynamic mechanism,this paper employs the DPSIR conceptual model as the basic framework of tourist ecological security system,and the action mechanism of the system is analyzed into 7 effect paths,and takes 30 major tourist cities in China as the research objects. The static mechanism of the system is described by partial least squares model( PLS),and the dynamic mechanism of the system is simulated by system dynamics model( SD). The results show that:① The PLS model is employed to test and measure the 7 paths within the system,and it is found that the negative effects of‘Response-Pressure’and the positive effect of ‘Impact-Response’are not significant,resulting in the failure of the feedback mechanism of the ecological security system. Therefore,the static mechanism of the ecological security system of tourist cities is divided into two parts: The one-way chain path is the‘Driver-Pressure-State-Impact’,which reflects the dependence and influence of the production and living behavior of tourist urban ecological environment system. The other way chain path is the divergent action path of ‘Response-Driver/Pressure’,which is a comprehensive summary of the ability to manage the ecological security system.② Based on the modified DPSIR model,the dynamic model is constructed and simulated to reveal the evolution path and development trend of tourism ecological security system. Combined with the strategies of tourism industry development and eco-civilization,the scenario model is set up to simulate and explore the performance of tourist urban ecological security system under the policy intervention,which could evaluate the performance of government management strategies and identify the strategic demands of tourism industry. The results show that according to the simulation of the development status of the system,it is found that the state of ecological security system presents a trend of continuous deterioration,the number of tourists meets the inflection point of growth and will decrease sharply,and the coordination degree of tourist industry will present a curve decline. Second,based on the result of the scenario simulation research,it sets out two scenario simulation programs,named ‘strategic orientation’and ‘coordination orientation’. Both kinds of simulation programs could effectively improve the current situation of ecological security system. The scenario of ‘coordination orientation’can effectively realize the continuous increase in the number of tourists,the improvement of ecosystem condition,and the tendency of excellent stability of the tourist coordination degree,by more strictly controlling the number of tourists’ growth rate,reducing the speed of industrial development,and enhancing environmental protection and infrastructure investment and other measures.