产业集聚能提高农业碳生产率吗?

Can industrial agglomeration improve agricultural carbon productivity?

基于黄淮海与环渤海设施蔬菜主产区2017年蔬菜专业村设施蔬菜种植户调研数据,在对产业集聚如何影响农业碳生产率进行数理模型机制分析的基础上展开实证检验。首先,运用路径分析方法总体衡量农业产业集聚程度的提高是否会强化技术溢出与规模效应以及二者对农业碳生产率的作用效果。然后,运用门限回归方法检验农业产业集聚对农业碳生产率的非线性影响,即“锁定”与“拥挤”效应。最后,运用分位数回归方法检验农业产业集聚对差异性农户的异质性作用效果。研究结果表明:产业集聚程度的提高会显著影响技术溢出与规模效应作用的发挥。其中,技术溢出、基础设施建设伴随产业集聚程度的提高与农业碳生产率之间呈“W”型关系,只有全面转型升级才是克服简单扩张导致的“锁定”与“拥挤”效应的最终途径,社会化服务供给缺陷则是约束农业碳生产率提高的重要因素。同时,农业产业集聚对于具有比较优势的高农业碳生产率农户的低碳增效作用更加明显。此外,生产专业化水平、是否采用测土配方施肥技术以及农户对消费者质量安全问题认知,也是影响农业碳生产率的重要因素。据此,提出提高农业碳生产率的政策建议:①继续加强主产地建设,发挥产业集聚优势,加大政府对基础设施建设的支持力度。②完善主产地农业社会化服务体系建设,提高服务标准、精准服务对象、完备服务内容。③推动农业产业集聚转型升级,实现集聚由“数量”向“质量”提高。④加强对农户人力资本、现代技术等方面的支持,特别是对弱势群体加以倾斜。⑤运用市场机制引导生产者低碳生产行为,将消费者绿色健康需求通过价格传导到农户方面,推动农户低碳生产。

Using the survey data of the main vegetable production area in the Huanghuaihai and the Bohai Rim Region in 2017,this paper theoretically and empirically studies the mechanism of industrial agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity. First,using path analysis( PA) method to estimate whether the improvement of agricultural industrial agglomeration can strengthen the technology spillover effect and scale effect and their impact on agricultural carbon productivity. Second,threshold regression( TR) is applied to test the non-linear effects of agricultural agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity,which are named‘locking’and‘crowding’effects. Finally,quantile regression is used to examine the heterogeneity of the effects of agricultural agglomeration on different farmers. The results show that,the improvement of industrial agglomeration significantly affects the role of technology spillover effect and scale effect. Among them,technology spillovers,infrastructure construction and the carbon productivity of farm households are in a‘W ’ shaped relationship. Comprehensive transformation and upgrading will be the ultimate way for agricultural industrial agglomeration to overcome the‘locking’and‘crowding’effects caused by simple expansion. Social services supply deficiencies are the main factors constraining the increase of carbon productivity. At the same time,agglomeration has a more pronounced effect on lowcarbon efficiency of farmers with comparative advantages and high agricultural carbon productivity. In addition,the level of production specialization,the adoption of soil testing and formula fertilization techniques and farmer’s recognition of consumer quality and safety issues are also important factors affecting the carbon productivity of farm households. Accordingly,the following policy implications for improving agricultural carbon productivity are put forward as follows:① Continue to strengthen the construction of main production areas,give full play to the advantages of industrial agglomeration,and increase the government support for infrastructure construction.②Improve the construction of agricultural socialization service system in main production areas,so as to make service standards higher,service objects more precise and service content richer.③Promote the transformation and upgrading of agricultural agglomeration,so as to improve the agglomeration from quantity to quality.④Strengthen the support of human capital and modern technology on farmers,especially for the disadvantaged group.⑤ Market mechanism should be used to guide producers’ low-carbon production behavior.Meanwhile,consumers’ green health demand should be transmitted to farmers’ side through price,so as to promote farmers’ lowcarbon production.