城镇安置模式对陕南移民搬迁农户生计活动影响研究——基于广义精确匹配模型

Impact of urban resettlement on the livelihood activities of rural resettled households in Southern Shaanxi Province with method of Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM)

城镇安置日益成为我国政府推进易地扶贫搬迁过程中主导的安置模式。本文首先简要探讨了我国移民安置模式的演进,在深入分析城镇安置模式三个层次的内涵及其对搬迁户生计活动影响机制的基础上,结合陕南安康移民搬迁地区搬迁农户的一手调查数据,运用广义精确匹配模型,控制了观测数据中混杂因素对评估结果的影响。在此基础上采用无序多分类logistic回归模型深入分析了城镇安置模式对搬迁农户以及贫困搬迁户生计活动的影响和作用。结果表明:①城镇安置模式对搬迁农户从事非农型生计具有显著的促进作用,从事非农型生计的概率显著提升1.863个对数发生比。在贫困的搬迁农户样本中,城镇安置模式使贫困的搬迁农户从事非农型生计的概率显著提升了1.823个对数发生比。②在全部搬迁户样本中,医疗设施对搬迁农户从事非农型生计有显著的促进作用;针对贫困搬迁户,便利的交通设施更有助于其从事外出务工等非农型生计;是否获得产业、就业扶持或培训无论对全部搬迁户或贫困搬迁户都无统计上的显著作用。③家庭劳动力数量、通讯费用对全部搬迁户以及贫困的搬迁户从事兼业、非农型生计有着显著的促进作用;搬迁时间对搬迁农户生计选择有一定的影响,但对贫困搬迁户无显著作用。最后,提出以下建议:城镇安置需要综合配套,逐步完善城乡一体化的体制机制;完善产业帮扶措施及提高农户的人力资本,帮助搬迁农户实现非农就业;流转土地,盘活搬迁农户在迁出区的资产,增加农户收入;要充分考虑搬迁人口在家庭结构和能力等方面的差异,实施差异化的精准扶持等。

Urban resettlement has increasingly become the dominant resettlement type in the process of poverty alleviation in rural areas. This paper briefly discusses the evolution of resettlement types in China,and in-depth meaning of the urbanization resettlement.Using the first-hand survey data of the resettled households in the southern Shaanxi,and Coarsened Exact Matching method to control the effect of the confounders on evaluating results,the paper analyzes the impact of urban resettlement on the livelihood activities of relocated rural households and the poor households by adopting multinomial logistic regression model. Results show that: Urban resettlement has a significant impact on non-agriculture livelihood activities,it increase the probability of non-agriculture livelihood strategy by 1. 863 logrithmic ratios. And for the poor households,the increase is 1. 823 Logarithmic ratios. In the whole sample,medical treatment facilities have a significant impact on the non-agriculture livelihood activities of resettled household,and the transportation promotes the poor migrating out to be worker. But the government’s employment support or training program does not have significant impact in the models. The number of household labor and the cost of communication play significant roles in promoting the livelihood of all the resettled households and the poor resettled households to engage in non-agricultural activities. Relocation time has a significant impact on the livelihood activities selection of resettled household,while it does not have significant effect on samples of the poor resettled households. In order to improve urban resettlement model in Shaanxi Province,suggestions are put forward: urban resettlement requires comprehensive design instead of being limited to favorable geographical location and infrastructure,improving the system and institution of urban-rural integration gradually;industrial development policies should be improved through the training program to increase the human capital of resettled household,so as to help the resettled household to achieve non-agricultural employment;land should be transferred,and the assets and resources of origin areas of the resettled households should be utilized to increase their income;the differences in family structure and ability of the relocated population should be considered and differentiated and targeted support is required.