草地贪夜蛾在云南的潜在适生区分析及经济损失预测

The potential distribution analysis and economic loss prediction of Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E. Smith)in Yunnan Province

【目的】分析草地贪夜蛾[Spodoptera frugiperda(J.E.Smith)]在云南省的潜在适生区,预测其可能给云南农业造成的损失,为进一步开展草地贪夜蛾防控提供依据。【方法】采用MaxEnt最大熵生态位模型,运用已知分布点数据和环境变量数据模拟草地贪夜蛾在云南的潜在适生概率,将结果导入ArcGIS 10.5进行重采样并进行相关分析。根据云南省统计年鉴中2017年主要农作物面积和产量数据,运用市场价格法初步建立草地贪夜蛾危害损失模型,对草地贪夜蛾入侵云南后可能造成的经济损失进行预测。【结果】草地贪夜蛾在云南的适生区范围广泛,其高适生区面积达17.85万km^2,约占云南省国土面积的50%;中度适生区和低适生区面积分别为16.09万和5.06万km^2。环境变量中,年平均温度对预测草地贪夜蛾潜在分布的贡献最大,其次为最干季度降水、最冷季度平均温和最干月份降水,昼夜温差月值对草地贪夜蛾分布的影响较小。草地贪夜蛾在玉米、烤烟、薯类和甘蔗4类主要农作物10%发生面积水平上可能对云南农业造成的经济损失高达3.95亿~8.94亿元人民币。【结论】草地贪夜蛾几乎能在云南全境适生,目前已扩散至全省120余个县,给云南省农业带来巨大威胁。应进一步加大对草地贪夜蛾的防控力度,严密监测虫情动态,在采取农药防治的基础上开展生物防治等其他控制措施,避免其暴发成灾。

【Objective】In order to provide basis for further control and prevention of Spodoptera frugiperda(J. E. Smith),the potential habitat of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province and the possible losses which were caused by S. frugiperda to agriculture of Yunnan Province were predicted.【Method】MaxEnt maximum entropy niche model was used to simulate the potential fitness probability of S. frugiperda in Yunnan by using known distribution point data and environmental variable data. The results were imported into ArcGIS 10.5 software for resampling and correlation analysis. According the area and yield data of main crops in 2017,and using the market price method,the damage loss model of S. frugiperda was preliminarily established,and the possible economic losses caused by S. frugiperda were predicted.【Result】 The results showed that the suitable habitats of S. frugiperda were widespread in Yunnan,and the highly suitable habitats (178500 km^2)accounted for nearly 50% of the total land area of Yunnan. The medium suitable habitats and less suitable habitats were 160900 and 50600 km^2. Among the environmental variables,the annual mean temperature contributed the most to the potential distribution of S. frugiperda,followed by the precipitation of driest season,the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the driest month,and mean diurnal range had less effects on the distribution of S. frugiperda. The possible economic losses on corn,tobacco,tuber and sugarcane at the 10% occurrence area level were as high as 395-894 million yuan.【Conclusion】S. frugiperda is suitable for almost the whole area of Yunnan. It has colonized and spread in more than 120 counties in Yunnan,which poses a great threat to the agriculture of Yunnan. In order to control the spread and harm of the S. frugiperda,the parties concerned should further strengthen the prevention and control efforts,closely monitor the dynamics of the insect situation,and actively carry out biological control and natural enemy control on the basis of pesticide control,so as to avoid the outbreak of disasters.