基于组合预测模型的保险业人才需求预测研究——以上海市为例

Demand Forecast of Insurance Industry Talents Based on Combination Forecast Model

为了突破上海市保险业人才供需失衡而制约行业发展的瓶颈,设计人才需求预测模型来预测未来几年的人才需求量具有实际意义。基于2011—2016年上海市保险业人才有关数据,构建包括GM(1,1)模型和指数平滑模型的组合预测模型,预测2019—2021年上海市的保险业人才需求量。结果表明:上海市未来三年内以每年约17%的速度增长,明显高于2016年的13.83%。最后,从高校培养人才的角度提出相关建议,以期为该行业的未来发展提供参考。

In order to break through the bottleneck that restricts the development of Shanghai’s insurance industry due to the imbalance between supply and demand of talents, it is of practical significance to design a talent demand prediction model to predict the number of talents in the next few years. Based on the relevant data of insurance talents in Shanghai from 2011 to 2016, this paper constructs a combined forecasting model including GM(1,1) model and exponential smoothing model to forecast the demand for insurance talents in Shanghai from 2019 to 2021. The results show that Shanghai will grow at an annual rate of approximately 17% in the next three years, significantly higher than the 13.83% in 2016. Finally, some suggestions are put forward from the perspective of cultivating talents in colleges and universities so as to provide reference for the future development of the industry.