产业扶贫对农户收入的影响机制及效果——基于乌蒙山和六盘山片区产业扶贫试点项目的准实验研究

The Influencing Mechanism and Effect of Industrial Poverty Alleviation on Farmers’ Income:A Quasi-experimental Study of Industrial Poverty Alleviation Pilot Project in the Wumeng Mountain and Liupan Mountain Area

产业扶贫是实现贫困人口稳定脱贫的根本之策。本文基于乌蒙山和六盘山片区产业扶贫试点项目的3个省8个县的准实验研究数据,采用DID分析了产业扶贫项目对贫困农户收入的影响。理论上,产业扶贫项目通过直接带动可以增加农户的经营性收入,通过就业带动可以增加农户的工资性收入,通过资产收益和补贴可以增加贫困户的财产性收入和转移性收入。实证研究发现,产业扶贫项目对家庭人均总收入具有正向作用,具体而言,产业扶贫项目对人均财产性收入和转移性收入有显著正向影响,对人均经营性收入和工资性收入影响不显著。通过PSM-DID模型以及安慰剂检验进一步验证了上述结论。该结论反映了当前产业扶贫所存在的共性问题,即基层政府和执行主体在成本、收益、风险等因素影响下偏好资产收益模式,所以带动贫困农户发展产业和劳动务工的参与程度并不高。为此,需要让贫困户更多地参与到农业产业链中,同时促进一二三产业融合,拓宽贫困户增收渠道,并培育经营主体和农村的精英人才,增强农户的组织化程度,使农户脱贫致富。

The industrial poverty alleviation is the fundamental strategy for helping the poor farmer to get rid of poverty.Based on the quasi-experimental data of the industrial poverty alleviation pilot project on eight counties in three provinces of the Wumeng and Liupan mountain area,this paper used DID to analyze the impact of industrial poverty alleviation projects on the poor farmers’ income.The study found that the industrial poverty alleviation project could increase the farmer’s operating income,and increase the farmer’s wage income through employment,also could increase the farmer’s property and transfer income through asset dividends and subsidies.The study also found that industrial poverty alleviation projects had a positive effect on per capita income.More specifically,the industrial poverty alleviation projects had significant effects on per capita property income and transfer income,but hadn’t remarkable influence on per capita operating income and wage income.The conclusions were confirmed by analysis of PSM-DID and placebo test.The research presented the common problem existing in the industrial poverty alleviation,which was that the grassroots government and executive entities preferred the model of asset investments under the influence of factors such as cost,income and risk,so that the number of poor farmers developing industries and being employed was small.So,it’s necessary to make poor households more involved in the agricultural industrial chain and promote the integration of the first,second and third industries,so as to expand the channels for the increase of poor households incomes.Meanwhile,the government should cultivate entities and elites in rural areas,and increase the organization degree of farmers,which can help the poor farmers to get rid of poverty.