进出口贸易、经济增长对碳排放的影响

The Influence of Import and Export Trade and Economic Growth on Carbon Emissions

利用1980~2017年的年度数据,研究河南省进出口贸易、经济增长对碳排放的影响.结果表明,进出口贸易、经济增长和碳排放之间存在长期均衡的关系;进出口贸易对河南省碳排放有着明显的抑制作用,进出口贸易额每增加1%,碳排放量减少0.25%,河南省不属于转移碳排放的城市之一;河南省不存在对碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线,碳排放和人均GDP之间存在U型曲线,人均GDP的拐点在2008年;根据脉冲响应函数来看,碳排放自身的影响是先升后降的,以第2期为拐点,进出口贸易和经济增长的影响在初期逐渐变大,达到某一时点后,会固定在某一水平.

Using the annual data from 1980 to 2017, this study examines the impact of import and export trade and economic growth on carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between import and export trade, economic growth, and the carbon emissions. The import and export trade has a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions in Henan province. Every 1% increase in the import and export trade will decrease the carbon emissions by 0.25%. There is not a environmental Kuznet curve for carbon emissions in Henan province. But there is a U-shaped curve between carbon emissions and per capita GDP, and the inflection point of per capita GDP happened in 2008. According to the impulse response function, the impact of carbon emission itself first rises and then falls. With the second phase as the inflection point, the impact of import and export trade and economic growth gradually increases in the initial stage, and after reaching a certain point, it will be fixed at a certain level.