基于贝叶斯网络的船舶靠离泊操作过程风险建模

Bayesian Network-Based Risk Modeling of Ship’s Berthing Operation Process

由于引发船舶靠离泊过程风险的因素具有未知、多变且因素之间相互耦合作用,其给作业风险决策带来较大的不确定性,具有较强的研究价值。笔者在研究靠离泊操作过程风险的问题上选用易于处理不确定性概率问题的贝叶斯网络方法。以流程化方法详细介绍靠离泊操作的具体过程,结合风险形成原理,系统的对船舶靠离泊操作过程风险及风险敏感环节进行辨识,便于清晰直观的了解靠离泊操作过程间的相互关系,构建船舶靠离泊操作过程风险模型。以靠离泊各个操作过程为影响节点所构建的网络模型具有一定的合理性,为船舶靠离泊操作和风险防范工作提供相应的操作实践参考。

Because the factors causing the ship's risk of leaving the mooring process are unknown and changeable, and the factors are mutually coupled, it brings great uncertainty to the operational risk decision-making and has strong research value. The author chooses the Bayesian network method which is easy to deal with the uncertainty probability problem in the research of the risk of the operation process. The specific process of the berthing operation is introduced in detail by the process method. Combined with the risk formation principle, the system identifies the risk and risk sensitive links of the ship's berthing operation process, which facilitates a clear and intuitive understanding of the relationship between the berthing operations. Construct a risk model for the ship's mooring operation process. The network model constructed by influencing the various operational processes as the influencing nodes has certain rationality, and provides corresponding operational practice reference for the actual deviation operation and risk prevention work.