黑龙江流域降水变化特征分析

Characteristics of Precipitation Variation in Heilongjiang River Basin

为了全面研究黑龙江流域降水变化情况,收集黑龙江流域国内外25个气象站的降水资料,通过线性趋势法、距平累积法、变尺度趋势分析法分析降水趋势特征;用Mann-Kendall法分析降水突变特征;用小波分析法分析降水周期性特征。结果表明:在1954—2012年的研究期内,黑龙江流域降水线性趋势变化率仅为-0.74%/(10 a),变尺度趋势分析发现降水在97.7%的有效统计时间段内均无显著趋势变化;距平累积法和Mann-Kendall突变检验结果发现降水具有明显的阶段性变化;小波分析证实了降水存在主周期为28,12,4 a的显著周期性。综上,黑龙江流域降水变化的周期性要明显强于趋势性。研究成果可为中俄跨界河流管理提供现实基础。

In a purpose of comprehensively researching the changes in precipitation in the Heilongjiang River Basin, we collected the precipitation data of 25 stations in the basin and examined the features of precipitation trend by linear trend method, accumulative anomaly method and variable scale trend analysis method;moreover, we also looked into the abrupt changes of precipitation by Mann-Kendall method, and the periodic characteristics by wavelet analysis. Results manifested that the linear trend change rate is only -0.74%/(10 a) during 1954-2012. We found no significant trend change in 97.7% of the effective time period. The accumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall method revealed that the precipitation changed in apparent stages, while wavelet analysis confirmed the significant periodicity of precipitation in dominant periods of 28, 12 and 4 years. In summary, the periodicity of precipitation changes in the Heilongjiang River Basin is significantly stronger than the trend. Study on the change of precipitation in Heilongjiang River Basin could provide realistic basis for Sino-Russian cross-border river management.