棚户区改造、非常规货币政策与房地产价格

Shanty Towns Rebuilding, Unconventional Monetary Policy and Housing Prices

本文基于2002年1月-2018年3月的时间序列数据,采用TVP-SVAR模型实证检验了棚户区改造背景下非常规货币政策对房地产价格的影响及其机制。研究发现:2013年之后,常规货币政策数量型工具对房地产价格的影响基本是失效的,非常规货币政策中的抵押补充贷款逐渐取代M2成为影响房地产价格的主要货币政策工具;从政策效果来看,虽然抵押补充贷款是房地产价格短期上涨的主要因素,但其长期影响并不明显;从影响机制来看,抵押补充贷款不仅能够直接影响房地产价格,还能够通过降低实际利率间接地影响房地产价格;分城市来看,抵押补充贷款对大城市的影响是非结构性的,但对中等城市的影响是结构性的,意味着通过抵押补充贷款支持棚户区改造的做法很可能导致中等城市房地产市场蕴含更大的价格波动风险。本文的研究加深了对非常规货币政策与房地产价格关系的理解,从而能够为棚户区改造与维护房地产市场平稳健康发展提供有益的政策启示。

Based on data from January 2002 to March 2018,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism and influence of unconventional monetary policy on housing prices by using the TVP-.SVAR model against the background of shanty town rebuilding.The study shows that the policy effect on housing prices of quantitative tools of conventional monetary policy has largely lapsed,while pledged supplementary lending of unconventional monetary policy has gradually replaced M2 as the main monetary policy.In terms of policy effect,pledged supplementary lending will only lead to short-term increases in housing prices,and has little effect on long-term housing prices.From the perspective of the impact mechanism,pledged supplementary lending can not only directly affect housing prices,but also has an indirect effect on housing prices by lowering real interest rates.In terms of city types,the impact of pledged supplementary lending on big cities is non-structural,but its impact on medium-sized cities is structural,which means that the medium-sized cities contains a greater risk of housing price fluctuations against the background of shanty town rebuilding.The research deepens the understanding of the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and housing prices,and provides useful policy inspirations for shanty town rebuilding and maintaining stable and healthy development of real estate market.