信用评级信息效应对证券分析师盈余预测的影响

On the Influence of Credit Rating Information Effect on the Earnings Forecast of Securities Analyst

信用评级信息价值的产生有受评公司和信息增量两个渠道。通过信用评级对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响研究,直接实证检验信用评级的信息价值,结果发现:信用评级会激励部分企业改善其信息披露质量,这种信息效应将提高分析师对该类公司的盈余预测准确度;信用评级产生的增量信息效应会显著改善小公司的盈余预测准确度,但对大公司的盈余预测没有显著改善。因此,对金融市场和金融工具的监管应完全放开对信用评级等级的依赖,同时改变信用评级行业单一获利渠道,促进我国信用评级行业的健康持续发展。

The value of credit rating information is displayed by two channels,the companies being rated and the incremental information.The value of credit rating information can be directly tested in an empirical way by analyzing the effect of credit rating on the earnings forecast of securities analysts.The study demonstrates two conclusions: credit rating will stimulate some companies to improve the quality of their information disclosure and the information effect achieved will increase the accuracy of earnings forecast of these companies by the analysts;the incremental information effect of credit rating can significantly improve the earnings forecast of small companies and has no remarkable effect on that of big companies.Therefore,the regulation of financial market and financial instrument should get rid of the dependence on credit rating and change the single channel of profit-making of the credit rating industry,in order to promote the consistent and sound development of China’s credit rating industry.