生育政策调整下育龄妇女生育状况变动研究——基于中部两省出生人口动态监测数据的分析

Study on the Change of Fertility Status of Women of Childbearing Age under the Adjustment of Family Planning Policy

文章以湖南省和湖北省卫生健康委员会提供的近5年出生人口动态监测数据为基础,从出生人口数量与结构、生育水平和生育模式等三个角度对生育政策调整下两省生育状况变动进行了分析。研究发现:第一,生育政策调整稳定了出生人口规模,分孩次出生人口数量呈现“一减少,两增加”的特点,出生人口性别结构得到改善,分孩次出生性别比呈现“一稳定,两下降”的趋势;第二,2014年以后,妇女总和生育率出现“政策性反弹”,且这种反弹几乎是由二孩总和生育率升高所贡献;第三,育龄妇女生育模式出现一定程度转变,二孩生育曲线整体“向上偏移”。一孩生育模式呈现新的特点,一孩生育曲线由“高峰集中”转向“分散宽平”的态势;第四,结合影响出生人口的“阶段性因素”和“趋势性因素”判断,未来出生人口持续下行将是基本态势。

Based on the data of the dynamics of births in the past five years provided by the Hunan and Hubei Provinces Health Commission,this paper analyzes the changes in the fertility status of the two provinces from the perspectives of birth population,structure,fertility level and fertility model.The results show that: First,the adjustment of the Family Planning Policy has stabilized the size of the birth population.The number of births has been “one reduction,two increase”.The gender structure of the birth population has been improved,and the gender ratio of births has been “one stable,two declines”.Second,TFR has been increasing substantially since 2014,which is caused almost completely by the raise of TFR for second birth.Third,the fertility pattern of women of childbearing age has changed to some extent.The two-child birth curve is “upwardly offset” overall.The birth pattern of a child presents a new characteristic.The birth curve of a child changes from “peak concentration” to “distribution broadness”.Fourth,combined with the “stage factors” and “trend factors” affecting the birth population,the continuous downward trend of the future birth population will be the basic trend.