市委书记个人特征与GDP增长关系的实证分析——基于GDP百强市10年1000份市委书记样本的数据分析

An Empirical Analysis of the relation between Secretary of Municipal Party Committee and GDP Growth: Data Analysis Based on 1000 Samples of Secretaries of Municipal Party Committee of GDP Top 100 Cities During Past 10 Years from 2008 to 2017

当前,经济发展面临较大的下行压力,各地GDP发展动能成为各方关注的焦点。GDP百强市何以傲视群雄,实现GDP高质高量的发展?除了传统的经济发展影响因素外,地方领导与地方经济发展是否存在一定关系?通过对2017年GDP百强市2008-2017年间1000份市委书记个人特征和GDP增长的平衡面板数据进行实证分析发现:市委书记晋升途径和GDP增长呈显著相关关系;市委书记年龄和任职市数量均与GDP增长呈“倒U型”变动关系,其中最佳任职年龄是54.68岁,最佳任职市数量是2.787个;市委书记的性别、学位、本科学校性质、基层工作经历与GDP增幅没有表现出显著相关关系。结合实证结果,提出了领导者选拔任用的政策取向。

At present,the economy is under a considerable downward pressure,and the driving force of the development of GDP growth has become the focus of attention.How can the GDP top 100 cities stand out from the rest of the competitors and achieve GDP development with high quality and high quantityIn addition to the traditional factors affecting economic development,whether there is a certain relation between local leaders and local economic developmentThrough the empirical analysis in 2017 of the balance panel data of 1000 personal characteristics of secretaries of municipal party committee of GDP top 100 cities and their balance panel data on GDP growth from 2008 to 2017,it is found that: there is a significant correlation between the promotion path of secretaries of municipal party committee and GDP growth;ages of secretaries of municipal party committee and the number of cities where they are in office both show an“inverted u-shaped”relation with GDP growth,among which the best age in office is 54.68 years old and the number of best cities where they are in office is 2.787;there is no significant correlation between genders,degrees,natures of undergraduate school,and grass-roots work experiences of secretaries of municipal party committee and GDP growth.Combined with the empirical results,this article will puts forward the policy orientation of the selection and appointment of a leader.