中国省域建筑安全生产水平的动态综合评价及策略分析

Dynamic comprehensive evaluation and strategic analysis for the provincial construction safety production level of the country

为从宏观层面上把握我国建筑安全生产水平的差异,因地制宜地采取措施,优化资源配置,在分析我国建筑业安全生产状况的基础上,利用安全事故统计分析原理,从绝对指标和相对指标两个方面构建了区域建筑安全生产水平评价体系;利用熵权法确定各指标权重,引入时间加权平均算子"TOWA"进行二次加权,对2009-2016年我国30个省域的建筑安全生产水平进行了相对优劣排序。结果表明,中部地区建筑业安全生产水平总体高于东部、东北部及西部地区。根据综合评价值将30个省域划分为建筑安全生产水平良好、不足、低下3个层次,进而提出了技术优先策略、管理优先策略及政策优先策略。

The present paper is engaged in identifying and founding a dynamic evaluation system of the regional construction safety production level,so as to comprehend and control the macro discrepancy of the state construction safety production level and optimize the proper resource distribution in accordance with the actual local conditions.It is just coming up to meet the above said demands,we have built up a system from absolute index and relative index via the entropy weighing method to determine the index weights on the basis of analyzing the domestic situation of the construction safety and the principle of security accident statistics results,And,the key problem for us to solve is to propose a dynamic evaluation approach based on the"TOPSIS"to compare the multiple objects during the various periods and overall levels over a certain period so as to disclose the influence of time periods on the system.What is more,to introduce the time-weighing average operator known as"TOWA"and choose the proper"time"λ,for the dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the"completed or the finished tense",or,as it says,the method of twice weighted synthesis,the first of which is to highlight the influence of each evaluation index at different times,whereas the second is based on the results of the first weight and highlights the influence of the time.As we have worked out,the 2009-2016 construction safety production levels of 30 provinces of the country and regions have been evaluated and ranked qualitatively.Thus,we have gained the results that the construction safety production level in the central regions prove to be higher than that in the eastern,northeast and western regions.And,in general,the construction safety production level of the central provinces and regions can also be divided into good,deficient and low,according to the comprehensive evaluation indexes,though most provinces are still remaining at the deficient stage.Seeing the dissatisfied situation,the paper would like to propose a strategy of the 3 priorities known as the technology-priority,management-priority and policypriority.Therefore,the model we have proposed is supposed to be adopted for the dynamic evaluation of the level of the safety production at the macro level,such as those in the basic construction and coal mining industries.