中国居民直接生活能源消费碳排放区域差异及影响因素分析

On regional difference and influential factors of carbon emissions from direct living energy consumption of Chinese residents

基于2003-2015年中国30个省份的居民直接生活能耗碳排放数据,利用空间自相关分析其空间格局变化,并利用地理加权回归模型分析了居民消费所产生的二氧化碳排放影响因素。结果表明,中国省域的碳排放空间依赖作用较为显著;居民消费水平、居民直接生活能耗碳排放强度、劳动年龄人口比重对居民人均直接生活能耗碳排放量的增加具有促进作用;家庭规模对人均碳排放的影响呈现较强的负向抑制作用。中国经济发展的区域不平衡在碳排放方面凸显为居民直接生活能源消费碳排放的差异,并在集聚格局上表现出多种类型。

The given paper is to devote itself to a study of the regional differences and the influential factors of the carbon emissions from the direct-living energy consumption of the Chinese residents. As is known,carbon emissions from the direct-living energy consumption of the residents can serve as a dispensable part for creating an energy policy of the country. And,for the said research,we have been tracing the spatial pattern changes of the carbon emission situation of the direct-living energy consumption in the 30 provinces of the country for the 13 years from^2003 to 2015 based on the reference provided by IPCC via the spatial analysis method. And,then,we have also analyzed the influential factors by using the geographically weighted regression( GWR) model. The results of our analysis indicate that:( 1)The spatial dependence of the direct-living energy carbon emissions of the residents in the above-mentioned provinces during the period under study is more significant by the global autocorrelation. The overall Moran’s I value in 2003-2015 reveals an upward trend of fluctuation;( 2) The results of the local autocorrelation LISA agglomeration analysis prove that the high agglomerated areas of the high-high( HH-type) consumption are mainly concentrated in Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei;whereas the lowvalue accumulation areas of low-low( LL-type) are mainly clustered in the local areas of central Anhui,Hubei and some other agriculturally stressed provincial places. The contrasted agglomeration areas of high and low( HL-type) energy consumption areas can be typically found in Guangdong,but the low-high( LHtype) agglomerated areas of the province also tend to be scarce in the whole country.( 3) The results of GWR indicate that the consumption levels,the emission intensity of the direct-living energy carbon of the residents,and the ratio of the working-age population can also have positive effects on the increase of percapita direct-living energy carbon emissions,which can be found of a strong negative effect on the per capita carbon consumption.Therefore,the above mentioned statistical analysis results can clearly indicate the regional imbalance of the country’s economic development,which also highlights the differences or the gaps in the carbon emissions from the direct domestic energy consumption,whereas the circular economy and sustainable development may account for the regional difference in the economic development. The carbon emissions, when directly acting on the residents’ energy consumption,can make the agglomeration turn out in various patterns. Just for such a purpose,the current study prefers to clarify and work out the influential factors of the carbon emissions from the daily living consumption,and,in turn,we just want to propose some feasible carbon emission reduction measures and suggestions,so as to promote the development of the green and low-carbon emission energy resources of the country.