穿透中国家庭部门杠杆走势与风险

Long-term Risks from Rising Leverage in China’s Household Sector

2016年以来,我国家庭部门杠杆率快速上升,引起社会各界广泛关注。静态来看,目前家庭部门杠杆率总体风险可控,但部分地区、部分家庭杠杆过高;动态来看,杠杆率持续上升蕴含了长期经济、金融和财政风险,核心在于房地产风险。

Since 2016, the leverage ratio of China's household sector has risen rapidly, causing widespread concern. The overall risks from household leverage are now controllable, but some regions have particular problems in this area. The continued rise in leverage implies long-term economic, financial and fiscal risks, however, and the core area of concern is real estate.