全球化真的损害了发达国家的经济利益吗——来自全球化收益分配及其决定因素的证据

Does Globalization Really Harm the Economic Interest of the Developed Countries?——Evidence from the Distribution of Benefits of Globalization and Its Determinants

全球范围内正在兴起一股“逆全球化”思潮,国际舆论普遍认为美国正走在“逆全球化”的道路上。本文通过建立全球化收益的衡量指标体系,测度了1991-2015年世界主要国家全球化收益的变动和分配情况,并基于面板回归实证检验了全球化经济收益的影响因素。研究发现:全球化提高了世界经济的福利水平,发达国家是全球化进程的最大受益方,全球化进程中“发达国家受害论”并不成立。进一步地检验发现,全球经济活动的参与度是决定全球化收益的重要因素,国内市场状况、要素条件、军费支出、武装力量、腐败治理、政府效率、政治稳定对一国的全球化收益有着显著影响。全球化进程不会发生根本性逆转,对全球化经济活动热情的下降、过度的海外军事扩张等是损害美国为首的发达国家全球化收益之重要原因.“逆全球化”无助于发达国家巩固其在世界经济中的相对领先地位.

There is a wave of "de-globalization" in the world, and international public opinion generally believes that the United States is on the road of "deglobalization." This paper measures the change and distribution of global income in the world's major countries from 1991 to 2015 by establishing a system of measurement indicators of global income, and empirically tests the influencing factors of global economic returns based on panel regression. The study finds that globalization has improved the welfare level of the world economy, developed countries are the biggest beneficiaries of the globalization process, and the "developed country victimization theory" in the process of globalization is not established. Further tests find that the participation of global economic activities is an important factor in determining the benefits of globalization. Domestic market conditions, factor conditions, military expenditures, armed forces, corruption governance, government efficiency, and political stability have a significant impact on a country's global gains. The globalization process will not undergo a fundamental reversal. The decline in enthusiasm for global economic activities and excessive overseas military expansion are important reasons for damaging the global benefits of the developed countries led by the United States."De-globalization" cannot help developed countries consolidate their relative leadership in the world economy. K.