多部门经济、异质性市场结构与货币政策——基于包含服务部门的动态随机一般均衡模型

Multi-Sectorial Economy, Heterogeneous Market Structure and Monetary Policy: A DSGE Model with Service Sector

服务部门的快速发展是中国经济的一个重要现实特征。基于这一事实,构建包含定制型服务、商业服务与规模化服务的动态随机一般均衡模型,并基于这一模型考察了货币政策的动态效应以及最优货币政策的特征。研究表明:扩张性货币政策提高了各类服务部门产出以及各部门通胀水平;考虑服务部门通胀的货币政策相对降低了产出并引起各部门通胀、工资膨胀更大幅度上升;最优货币政策则要求货币政策盯住目标考虑工资膨胀。在此基础上,进一步考察了将工资膨胀考虑在内的拓展型泰勒规则的动态效应。结果显示,相对基准政策机制而言,拓展型泰勒规则对于宏观经济具有相对较好的稳定效应,并显著降低了货币政策引致的社会福利损失。

The rapid expansion of service sector is one of the important realistic characteristics of China's economy. Based on this fact, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including such sectors as customized service, business service and scale service, so as to investigate the dynamic effects of the monetary policy and the characteristics of the optimal monetary policy based on this model. The results show that: the expansionary monetary policy has improved the level of output of the various service sectors and the inflation of each section;the monetary policy taking into considerations the inflations of the service sector has reduced the output and caused inflations of each section and large scale increase of wage expansion;the optimal monetary policy requires the monetary policy to keep a close watch on the targets and consider the wage expansion. On such a basis, it further analyzes the dynamic effects of the extended Taylor rule which takes into consideration the wage expansion. The findings reveal that, compared with the standard policy mechanism, the extended Taylor rule plays a much better role in stabilizing the macro economy;and it can significantly reduce the social welfare losses caused by monetary policy.