金融效率抑制了经济波动吗——基于61个国家面板数据的经验研究

Can Financial Efficiency Smooth Economic Fluctuation? An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data from 61 Countries

基于61个国家1981-2014年数据,通过固定效应面板模型和两阶段最小二乘法回归方法,对金融效率是否抑制了经济波动以及是否平滑了金融开放的经济波动效应进行实证研究,发现金融效率对经济波动具有一定的抑制作用,尤其是对中高收入国家的经济波动具有明显的抑制作用,并且金融效率的提高显著地平滑了这些国家金融开放的经济波动效应;但中低收入国家的金融效率对经济波动的抑制作用不明显,同时也没有对这些国家金融开放的经济波动效应起到明显的平滑作用。因此,在扩大金融开放的同时应提高资本形成率,进一步促进金融机构改革,完善资本市场,加快资金在资本市场的流动性,提高金融机构效率和金融市场效率,这都将有助于经济平稳增长。

Based on the panel data of 61 countries from 1981 to 2014 and employing the fixed effect panel model and the TSLS regression method, this paper conducts an empirical study on whether financial efficiency can restrain economic fluctuation and smooth the economic fluctuation in financial openness. The findings show that the financial efficiency has a certain restraining effect on economic fluctuation, especially has a significant restraining effect on the economic fluctuation in countries with middle and higher income, and the improvement of the financial efficiency can significantly smooth the economic fluctuations in the financial openness of these countries. However, the financial efficiency of the countries with lower and middle income has no obvious restraining effect on economic fluctuations, nor has it smoothed the economic fluctuations in the financial openness of these countries. Therefore, while expanding the financial openness, it is necessary to improve the capital formation rate, further promote the reform of the financial institutions, speed up the liquidity of funds in the capital markets, and improve both the efficiency of financial institutions and the efficiency of financial markets, all of these can help the steady growth of the economy.