苏州市大气PM2.5浓度与心脑血管疾病死亡的时间序列分析

Association between PM2.5 pollution in ambient air and cardio-cerebrovascular mortality in Suzhou in 2016:a time series analysis

目的探讨苏州市PM2.5对居民心脑血管疾病死亡的影响。方法收集2016年1月1日~2017年12月31日苏州市居民人群死亡数据、大气污染物的数据、气象资料,采用广义相加泊松回归模型分析PM2.5与居民每日心脑血管疾病死亡人数之间的关系,计算PM2.5质量浓度每上升一个四分位数间距(interquartile range,IQR)的相对危险度(relative risk,RR值)及其95%可信区间。结果 2016-2017年苏州市居民因心脑血管疾病死亡总人数为30 200人,平均为41例/d。PM2.5的日均中位浓度为37.13μg/m^3,IQR为30.75μg/m^3。在最佳滞后条件下,PM2.5浓度每上升一个IQR,苏州市居民心脑血管疾病单日死亡效应和平均死亡效应RR值分别为1.017(1.001~1.034)和1.055(1.019~1.093)。分层分析结果显示,女性和>65岁老年人群的心脑血管疾病的死亡风险更高。结论苏州市PM2.5浓度的升高可能引起人群心脑血管疾病死亡风险的增加。

Objective To explore the effect of PM2. 5 on the mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular disease in Suzhou,China. Methods The death data,air pollutant data and meteorological data from January 1,2016 to December 31,2017 in Suzhou were collected. The general additive Poisson regression model was used to analyse the association of exposure to PM2. 5 with the daily deaths due to cardio-cerebrovascular disease,and to calculate the relative risk ( RR) and 95% confidence intervals ( 95%CI) for an interquartile range ( IQR) increase in PM2. 5 . Results The number of deaths from cardio-cerebrovascular disease was 30 200. On average,there were approximately 41 deaths per day. The daily median concentration of PM2. 5 was 37. 13 μg /m^3 and IQR was 30. 75 μg /m^3 . The RR values of single-day death and average death from cardio-cerebrovascular disease were 1. 017 ( 1. 001 - 1. 034 ) and 1. 055 ( 1. 019 - 1. 093) with an IQR increase of PM2. 5 concentration,respectively. Stratified by gender and age,female and the elderly aged over 65 had higher risks of death from the cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Conclusion The elevated level of ambient PM2. 5 was positively associated with the increase of mortality of cardio- cerebrovascular disease.