近代中国若干年度政府购买时序数据的估算(1903—1936)

Several Years Estimation of Time Series Data of Government Purchase in Modern China(1903-1936)

本文利用近代中国若干年度已有的宏观经济数据 GDP、消费、进出口以及对外投资数据的估算,引入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和国民收入核算方法估算出政府购买的时间序列数据,首次估算出我国1903-1936年的投资额并据此得到政府购买长序列数据,实证分析了近代中国财政收入与政府购买的关系,通过价格指数和进口额验证了投资数据的准确性。本文认为,通过柯布-道格拉斯模型中的人口、资本、GDP等数据得出的近代中国传统产业的投资额存在一定可信度,从而保证了政府购买时序数据估算的可靠性。

Using the macroeconomic data already available in modern China for several years,GDP,consumption,import and export,and estimation of investment data,the Cobb-Douglas production function and national income accounting method were used to estimate the time series data of government purchase.The long-term series of government purchase data is obtained for the first estimation of national investment from 1903 to 1936.It empirically analyzes the relationship between financial revenue and government purchase in modern China,and verifies the accuracy of investment data by using price index and imports.The result indicate that there is a credibility in the investment of traditional industry in modern China based on the data of population,capital,GDP and so on in Cobb-Douglas model,which ensures the reliability of the estimation of time series data of government purchase.