广西土地整治增长极及其驱动类型分析——基于改进灰色关联模型

Study of growth poles and factors driving land consolidation in Guangxi based on improved grey relational analysis method

为了归纳总结广西土地整治的实施规律,分析确定其主要驱动类型,运用时间序列法,对广西2005年至2015年土地整治规模变化进行了演绎归纳。运用线性趋势分析法,对2016年至2020年土地整治规模进行了预测。运用改进灰色关联分析方法,基于城乡统筹视角,从经济、社会和资源三个方面共选择15个因子,对土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦进行了驱动力分析。结果表明,2005—2015年广西土地整治存在不同增长极现象,“十一五”期间土地整理是增长核心,“十二五”期间土地开发是增长核心。经预测分析,“十三五”期间土地复垦将会是增长核心。受政策和时机影响,土地整治的增长极将会在土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦之间呈依次循环、周期叠进的发展规律。受优质耕地资源数量少、农业基础设施薄弱等因素影响,广西土地整理主要为“资源+社会”驱动型。受“不稳定耕地”资源数量大、农业保险赔款支出率高等因素影响,广西土地开发主要为资源驱动型。受北部湾经济区发展速度快、土地利用集聚效应显著、不合理开发所致破损土地数量增大等因素影响,广西土地复垦主要为经济驱动型。研究表明,区域土地整治存在增长极现象,土地整理、土地开发和土地复垦作为土地整治发展的核心,其实施规模与驱动类型各有差异,三者间的优化协调发展,应是新时期土地整治发展的主要方向与任务。

As a region that is typical of land consolidation in southwest China, Guangxi has summarized its application regulation and analyzed & determined their main driving factors. This is useful for the promotion of land consolidation. This study used the time series method to deduce and summarize the evolution of land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. This study also used the linear trend analysis method to predict the scale of land consolidation from 2016 to 2020. Consequently, 15 factors had been selected from three aspects including economy, society, and resources to analyze the driving factors of land arrangement, land development, and land reclamation using the improved grey relational analysis method from a urban-rural coordination perspective. The results showed that there were several different growth pole phenomena for land consolidation in Guangxi from 2005 to 2015. During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, land arrangement was the key growth point, and during the 12th Five-Year Plan, land development was the key growth point. Using forecasting and analysis, it was considered that land reclamation would become the key growth point during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. As a result of policies and opportunities, the growing poles of land consolidation would follow the same development pattern as that had occurred in previous years. Influenced by a shortage of high-quality cultivated land resources and weak agricultural infrastructure, land utilization in Guangxi was mainly driven by "resources+society". Due to a large number of "unstable cultivated land" resources and a high rate of agricultural insurance indemnity expenditure, land development in Guangxi was mainly resource-driven. As a result of the rapid development of the Beibu Gulf economic zone, the significant effect of land use agglomeration, and the increase in degraded land caused by unsustainable development, land reclamation in Guangxi was mainly driven by economic need. Moreover, there were growth pole phenomena that were relevant for regional land consolidation. The core points of land arrangement, development, and reclamation would have numerous implementation scales and driving factors. Their optimum and coordinated development should provide the direction for land consolidation development in the future.