产业集聚的经济增长溢出效应——基于新经济地理学视角

Spillover Effect of Economic Growth of Industrial Agglomeration —Based on New Economic Geography

为了探索产业集聚对经济增长溢出的影响机制和效应,从一般均衡理论模型角度出发分析产业集聚对经济增长溢出影响的理论机制,并构建空间杜宾模型实证分析产业集聚与经济增长之间关系以及经济增长地理溢出效应。研究发现:产业集聚对经济增长溢出的影响存在显著的非线性关系。一方面,产业集聚对本地经济增长溢出的影响,金融危机之前为正外部性,金融危机之后具有负外部性。另一方面,产业集聚的扩散效应有助于毗邻地区经济增长溢出效应的提升。长期来看产业集聚对于经济增长溢出的直接效应、间接效应以及总效应都有促进作用,而且对毗邻地区的经济增长溢出也有正的外部性;短期来看,金融危机之前间接效应损失大于直接效应损失,而金融危机之后则相反。

In order to explore the influence mechanism and effect of industrial agglomeration on economic growth spillover,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of industrial agglomeration on economic growth spillover from the perspective of general equilibrium theory model. The spatial Doberman model is constructed to analyze the relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth and the geographical spillover effect of economic growth.The results are as follows: there is a significant nonlinear relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth spillover.On one hand,before the financial crisis,industrial agglomeration has positive externalities on economic growth spillover effect,and after the financial crisis,industrial agglomeration has negative externality to economic growth spillover effect.On the other hand,the diffusion effect of industrial agglomeration is helpful to promote the spillover effect of economic growth in adjacent regions.In the long run,the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of industrial agglomeration on economic growth spillover are all positive externalities. The indirect effect loss is greater than the direct effect loss before the financial crisis,but the opposite after the financial crisis.