重标方差结合法在径流时间序列突变中的应用

Application of Restandard Variation Combination Method in Abrupt Change of Runoff Time Series

在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,水文系统变异愈发剧烈,合理地进行水文预测和水资源配置显得尤为重要。文章将分形V/S分析方法结合非参数统计检验Wilcoxon秩和检验法相结合,提出V-W法来进行时间序列的突变点检测,进而研究径流时间序列的突变性,分析突变点相应的气候变化规律。研究成果对于径流时间序列突变应用具有一定的指导意义。

Impacted by the climate change and human activities, the hydrological systems are becoming more variable, and it is particularly important to conduct reasonably hydrological prediction and water resources allocation. In this paper, the fractal V/S analysis method was combined with the nonparametric statistical Wilcoxon rank sum test, putting forward the V-W method to check variation points of time series, so as to research the abrupt change of runoff time series and analyze the law of corresponding climate change of variation points. The research results have certain guiding significance for the application of abrupt change of the runoff time series.