中国出境旅游国际影响力的时空测度——基于市场占比和增长贡献度的分析

Spatial-temporal analysis of international influence for China′s outbound tourism: based on market share and growth contribution

提出出境旅游国际影响力的概念,系统搜集近20年来中国出境旅游客流量、旅游支出以及2012—2016年中国出境世界130个国家旅游数据,以市场占比、增长贡献度为指标,测定中国出境旅游影响力的时空变化。结果发现:20年来,中国出境旅游的世界市场占比及增长贡献度不断提高,2010年后超越传统出境旅游强国,位居世界第一;目的地国家中,中国游客市场占比及增长贡献度较高的国家主要分布在亚太地区,市场占比在10%以上,增长贡献度在20%以上,空间聚集现象明显;中国出境旅游影响力较大的区域主要分布在亚洲-太平洋地区,对日韩和东盟10国的影响力最大,对美国及欧洲、非洲部分国家有一定的影响力,对西欧、南欧、南美、非洲大部分国家的影响力一般。

The concept of international influence of outbound tourism was put forward.Based on tourist flows and outbound tourism expenditure of China in recent 20 years and the tourism data of 130 destination countries for China′s outbound tourism in 2012-2016,taking the market share and growth contribution as indicators to measure the spatial and temporal changes of China′s outbound tourism influence. The results found that in the past 20 years,market share and growth contribution of China′s outbound tourism have been continuously improved. After 2010,it surpassed the traditional outbound tourism powers and ranked first in the world. Among the destination countries,the countries with higher market share and growth contribution of Chinese tourists are mainly distributed in the Asia-Pacific region,the market share is above 10% and the growth contribution is over 20%.The phenomenon of spatial agglomeration is obvious. The strong influence areas of China′s outbound tourism are mainly distributed in the Asia-Pacific region,which has the greatest influence on the surrounding countries,especially Japan and South Korea,ASEAN 10 countries,it also has some influence on the United States,some European and African countries,and has a general influence on Western Europe,Southern Europe,America and African countries.