基于多普勒雷达的降水-蒸发预报模型研究及应用

Research and Application of Precipitation-Evaporation Prediction Model Based on Doppler Radar

黏土心墙堆石坝在雨季难以有效施工,为解决这一问题,大多工程采用在降雨集中时段暂停施工的方式,从而导致设备及人员闲置、作业效率低、施工成本高等问题。为此,提出以多普勒雷达为基础的降水-蒸发预报模型,定量分析雨季有效施工时间,并建立了精细化的雨季施工体系。模型能够较准确预判坝址区小区域的降雨,指导现场充分利用窗口期开展施工,提高了施工效率,避免了雨季停工及人员设备长时间闲置等情况的出现,确保了雨季填筑强度满足工期要求。该模型在两河口水电站施工中得到有效应用。

The clay core wall rockfill dams are difficult to construct effectively during the rainy season,so suspending construction during rainy season is a common method for most projects,which leads to problems such as idle equipment and manpower,low construction efficiency and high construction cost. A precipitation-evaporation forecasting model based on doppler radar is proposed,which can quantitatively analyze the effective construction time in rainy season,and a refined construction system in rainy season is established. This model can accurately predict the rainfall in dam site area,guide engineers to make full use of the window period to carry out construction,improve construction efficiency,avoid the situation such as shutdown and long idle time of personnel and equipment,and ensure construction progress as planned. It has been effectively applied in the construction of Lianghekou Hydropower Station.